Members of the Broadus Volunteer Fire Department, as well as citizens concerned about wildfire met with representatives from the Bureau of Land Management last Wednesday at the Community Center to discuss the ongoing wildfire risk.
Scott McAvoy, the BLM's Assistant Fire Management Officer for the Eastern Montana/Dakotas District, spoke to the assembled group about the fire conditions evident in 2021, the assets involved in the fires, and current trends in the fire world that we might see play out in the future.
McAvoy described how the Eastern Montana Fire Zone (which also includes portion of Harding County, SD, near Camp Crook) has seen nearly 254,000 acres of fires this year, through the end of August. When compared to fires over the last decade, that number is less than the historical fire years of 2012 and 2017, which both saw over 500,000 acres burned, including the Ash Creek Fire in 2012, which scorched 249,562 acres, and shut down power in Broadus for over a week, and the Lodgepole Complex of 2017, which burned 270,743 acres west of Jordan. By comparison, the overall number of fires in 2021 was nearly equal to 2017, with 410 fires this year, compared to 418 in 2017. Both years had significantly more fires than 2012, which had 203 fires.
By comparison, 2013 saw some of the least fire activity, with 88 fires burning a mere 1767 acres.
Scott spoke of the increase in coal seam fires, which have become more of an issue over the years, especially since 2012. In 2012, 12 coal seam fires ignited blazes in Eastern MT, while in 2020 that number jumped to 50, and 40 coal seam fires have taken place in 2021, including the 171,130 acre Richard Spring Fire, between Colstrip, Lame Deer, and Ashland.
One point made by McAvoy when describing the number of fires and acreage burned was that even though our fire season began early this year, the BLM and Forest Service had a large number of pre-positioned assets in the area to help battle the blazes, which kept a large number of our fires this season relatively small. Some examples of these assets include smokejumpers positioned in Miles City, an extra helicopter at the Heli-base in Miles City, additional fire engines, and hand crews. These pre-positioned assets are a big help in trying to control fires early, and stands as a lesson learned from 2012, when a number of early season fires (including the Ash Creek Fire, which began in June) left fire managers scrambling to come up with personnel and assets. On "normal" years, federal agency agreements dictate that a portion of the firefighters and equipment from our region travel to areas such as New Mexico, which traditionally has an earlier fire season, in June. Monsoonal moisture tends to hit that part of the country just as fires are kicking off back in Montana, and those MT firefighters return home, now aided by personnel from the southwest in a sort of swap of personnel and equipment. On severe fire years, those seasons often don't adhere to the norm, and federal agencies bring in personnel from other areas and build up assets in locations where they are most needed, to try and keep fires small.
What this all means is that in a year like 2021, where firefighters across the west were stretched thin by severe conditions in areas such as California, Oregon, the Southwest, and in Montana, any specific area could see limited availability of fire assets. Fortunately for our area, McAvoy noted, the excellent work of Federal, State, and local assets meant that air assets were readily allocated to Eastern Montana, as it was seen that the firefighters here were able to use those assets to great effect, putting fires out quickly and keeping them out. He went on to say that the air tanker base in Billings recorded an astounding 1.6 millon acres of retardant dropped on fires this year, compared to a previous record of 1.3 million acres. The cost for these drops averages around $2.30 a gallon, and is delivered by the ubiquitous SEAT, or single engine air tanker, which often feature 700 gallon tanks, on up to the large air tankers with 2,000 to 4,000 gallon tanks. Additionally, this year the VLAT, or very large air tankers were used on some fires in Eastern Montana, which are capable of delivering 8,000 gallons. These VLATs are modified DC-10 aircraft. The group discussed the capabilities and uses of these aircraft; notably that it sometimes is more cost effective and more effective on the fire to send larger air tankers, rather than numerous SEAT runs.
The trend of more, larger, and more dangerous fires across the west was discussed, with the point driven home by Forest Service personnel on hand from New Mexico, who described the burn-over where five firefighters were injured in July, fighting the Devils Creek Fire in the Missouri Breaks of NW Garfield County. A "microstatic event", as firefighters described the incident, occurred on Devils Creek Fire, where a small storm cell several miles away from the fire caused an enormous wind event, sending the fire into overdrive. What once were small flames in the grass were suddenly kicked up by 60 mph wind gusts, turning the blaze into "150 to 200 foot flame lengths" running through the trees, sweeping up a ridge and burning five firefighters who happened to be in the path of destruction. The event was so localized that a different crew only a ridge away felt only felt 5 to 10 mph gusts. The firefighters injured by the blaze are recovering, but the event served as a reminder of the dangerous conditions firefighters find themselves in whenever they step foot on the fireline.
Discussion also centered on what fire crews are seeing nationwide, that is, more extreme fire behavior. Fires that would once creep through the forest understory are now raging across landscapes, burning hotter and consuming more acreage. The reasons behind these more extreme fires are varied and numerous, some examples include extended drought, a historical trend of putting out all fires immediately, fuel loading, and climate change.
When all of the parts of the story are combined, a model may be formed showing that for the forseeable future a trend towards more fires, larger fires, and more dangerous fires, meaning that firefighters, landowners, and really anyone living in the west should be prepared to see extreme fire behavior, not just for the rest of this year but for the rest of their lifetimes.
McAvoy made a very important point to sum up his findings – fire season in Eastern Montana is not over, and likely won't be over anytime soon. Case in point: McAvoy once helped fight a fire near Ekalaka which involved evacuations... on Halloween.
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